Polymarket Bot — Command Center

Bankroll

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Initial: —

Net P&L

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Peak: —

Win Rate

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—W / —L

Open Positions

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Entered: —

Drawdown

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Daily loss: —

Brier Score

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Kelly: —

Scanned

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Analyzed: —

Bot State

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Bankroll Health —

Current: —Initial: —

Kill Switch Proximity —

Drawdown: —Limit: 40%

Daily Loss Budget —

Used: —Limit: 5%

Trade Outcomes — resolved

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— Wins — Early — Losses

Circuit Breaker Ladder NONE

DAILY
5%

MONTHLY
15%

DRAWDOWN
25%

KILLED
40%

All clear — trading active

Scan Funnel —% pass

Scanned

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Filtered

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Analyzed

—

Entered

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Strategy Performance

Convergence

35%

$—

Whale Copy

20%

$—

CEX Oracle

30%

$—

Alerts

15%

$—

—

sec

Active Params

Min YES: — Min Edge: —
State: — Mode: —

Equity Curve

Strategy Allocation

Analysis Pipeline

Last 30 · 15s refresh

Time	Market	Cat	Mkt	p(YES)	Edge	Conf	Hrs	Result
No analyses yet

Open Positions

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Market	Cat	Entry	Current	Size	Shares	P&L%	Hrs	Status
No open positions

Trade Journal

Time	Event	Signal	Market	Cat	Price	Size	P&L	Edge	Mode
No trades yet

Whale Leaderboard

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#	Address	Tier	Volume	Trades	Win%	Last Seen
Bootstrapping whale DB…

Whale Scanner Stats

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Consensus Signals

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Time	Market	Side	Price	Whales	Confidence	Volume	Status
No signals yet

Gate Rejections

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Scanner Stats

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CEX Oracle — Live Crypto Prices

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Fetching…

CEX Arb Opportunities

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Asset	CEX $	Strike	Dir	Mkt%	Model%	Edge	Hrs	Market
No CEX opportunities

Analysis Detail

Time	Market	Mkt	p(YES)	Edge	Key Risk	Result
No analyses yet

Unity Violations (YES+NO ≠ $1)

0 active

Buy YES+NO for <$0.98 = guaranteed profit at resolution.

Market	YES Ask	NO Ask	Cost	Profit%	Time
Scanning every 10s…

NegRisk Violations (sum ≠ 1)

0 active

Buy all outcomes for <$0.98 = guaranteed $1 on resolution.

Group	Outcomes	Cost	Profit%	Time
Scanning every 15s…

Alert Scanner Stats

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Rolling Brier Score

Perfect=0.00 · Random=0.25 · Current: —

Calibration Curve

Diagonal = perfectly calibrated · —

Self-Improvement Agent

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LAST ANALYSIS

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Parameter Changes

Time	Parameter	Old	New	Reason
No changes yet

Signal Quality Weights

Updates after every resolved WIN / LOSS — early exits excluded

Strategy	Wins	Losses	Total	Bayes Win%	Quality Weight	Effect on Size	Status
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How it works: Weight = Bayesian win-rate ÷ 0.50 (baseline), clamped to [0.40 – 1.50]. Applied to Kelly position size before the risk check. Neutral (1.00×) until ≥ 15 fully-resolved trades per signal. Rolling window: last 100 trades.

Win / Loss Breakdown

Bot Controls

WALLET BALANCE

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Status Snapshot

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Edit config.yaml or let the improvement agent tune params.

Live Bot Log

Download

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DANGER ZONE

Kill switch permanently halts trading. Recovery requires manual reset of data/state.json.